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Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T16:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-07-11T23:35Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 870
Longitude (deg): E012
Latitude (deg):  S32
Half-angular width (deg): 39

Notes: Bulk of material passing south of Earth with low confidence of glancing impact + shock arrival. Geomagnetic response may be further enhanced due to previous CME arrival + HSS. 
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 46.92 hour(s)
Difference: -0.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-07-12T17:00Z

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